Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV), one of the leading U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicles players, saw its stock price decline by almost 7% over the last 21 trading days. In comparison, the S&P 500 was down by about 3% over the same period. While the sell-off was largely due to the Evergrande debt crisis, which hurt the broader Chinese market, things are actually looking up for Xpeng’s business. The company recently reported robust Q3 deliveries, noting that it had sold about 26,000 vehicles over the quarter, marking an increase of 200% year over year and well ahead of guidance of 22,000 units for the quarter. The numbers are noteworthy as they come despite the ongoing semiconductor shortage which has roiled the auto industry. Xpeng’s deliveries were also ahead of rival Nio, which delivered about 24,500 units, and Li Auto, which delivered a little over 25,000 vehicles for the quarter.
So is Xpeng stock likely to decline further, or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the historical stock price, there is a 58% chance of a rise in XPEV stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Xpeng Stock Chance Of Rise for more details. The stock also looks like a good buy for the longer term, given the solid demand growth for EVs in the Chinese market and Xpeng’s increasing progress with autonomous driving technology. Moreover, the stock also remains down by about 14% year-to-date and by about 33% from its January 2021 highs, presenting a good entry point for investors.
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[9/7/2021] Nio and Xpeng Had A Tough August, But The Outlook Is Looking Brighter
The three major U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle players recently reported their August delivery figures. Li Auto led the trio for the second consecutive month, delivering a total of 9,433 units, up 9.8% from July, driven by strong demand for its Li-One SUV. Xpeng delivered a total of 7,214 vehicles in August 2021, marking a decline of roughly 10% over the last month. The sequential declines come as the company transitioned production of its G3 SUV to the G3i, an updated version of the car which will go on sale in September. Nio fared the worst of the three players delivering just 5,880 vehicles in August 2021, a decline of about 26% from July. While Nio consistently delivered more vehicles than Li and Xpeng until June, the company has apparently been facing supply chain issues, tied to the ongoing automotive semiconductor shortage.
Although the delivery numbers for August may have been mixed, the outlook for both Nio and Xpeng looks positive. Nio, for example, is likely to deliver about 9,000 vehicles in September, going by its updated guidance of delivering 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles for Q3. This would mark a jump of over 50% from August. Xpeng, too, is looking at monthly delivery volumes of as much as 15,000 in the fourth quarter, more than 2x its current number, as it ramps up sales of the G3i and launches its new P5 sedan. Now, Li Auto’s Q3 guidance of 25,000 and 26,000 deliveries over Q3 points to a sequential decline in September. That said we think it’s likely that the company’s numbers will come in ahead of guidance, given its recent momentum.
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[8/3/2021] How Did The Major Chinese EV Players Fare In July?
U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players provided updates on their delivery figures for July, with Li Auto taking the top spot, while Nio (NYSE: NIO), which consistently delivered more vehicles than Li and Xpeng until June, falling to third place. Li Auto delivered a record 8,589 vehicles, an increase of about 11% versus June, driven by a strong uptake for its refreshed Li-One EVs. Xpeng also posted record deliveries of 8,040, up a solid 22% versus June, driven by stronger sales of its P7 sedan. Nio delivered 7,931 vehicles, a decline of about 2% versus June amid lower sales of the company’s mid-range ES6s SUV and the EC6s coupe SUV, which are likely facing stronger competition from Tesla, which recently reduced prices on its Model Y which competes directly with Nio’s offerings.
While the stocks of all three companies gained on Monday, following the delivery reports, they have underperformed the broader markets year-to-date on account of China’s recent crackdown on big-tech companies, as well as a rotation out of growth stocks into cyclical stocks. That said, we think the longer-term outlook for the Chinese EV sector remains positive, as the automotive semiconductor shortage, which previously hurt production, is showing signs of abating, while demand for EVs in China remains robust, driven by the government’s policy of promoting clean vehicles. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle players.
[7/21/2021] What’s New With Li Auto Stock?
Li Auto stock (NASDAQ: LI) declined by about 6% over the last week (five trading days), compared to the S&P 500 which was down by about 1% over the same period. The sell-off comes as U.S. regulators face increasing pressure to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which could result in the delisting of some Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges if they do not comply with U.S. auditing rules. Although this isn’t specific to Li, most U.S.-listed Chinese stocks have seen declines. Separately, China’s top technology companies, including Alibaba and Didi Global, have also come under greater scrutiny by domestic regulators, and this is also likely impacting companies like Li Auto. So will the declines continue for Li Auto stock, or is a rally looking more likely? Per the Trefis Machine learning engine, which analyzes historical price information, Li Auto stock has a 61% chance of a rise over the next month. See our analysis on Li Auto Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.
The fundamental picture for Li Auto is also looking better. Li is seeing demand surge, driven by the launch of an upgraded version of the Li-One SUV. In June, deliveries rose by a solid 78% sequentially and Li Auto also beat the upper end of its Q2 guidance of 15,500 vehicles, delivering a total of 17,575 vehicles over the quarter. Li’s deliveries also eclipsed fellow U.S.-listed Chinese electric car startup Xpeng in June. Things should continue to get better. The worst of the automotive semiconductor shortage – which constrained auto production over the last few months – now appears to be over, with Taiwan’s TSMC, one of the world’s largest semiconductor makers, indicating that it would ramp up production considerably in Q3. This could help boost Li’s sales further.
[7/6/2021] Chinese EV Players Post Record Deliveries
The top U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) all posted record delivery figures for June, as the automotive semiconductor shortage, which previously hurt production, shows signs of abating, while demand for EVs in China remains strong. While Nio delivered a total of 8,083 vehicles in June, marking a jump of over 20% versus May, Xpeng delivered a total of 6,565 vehicles in June, marking a sequential increase of 15%. Nio’s Q2 numbers were roughly in line with the upper end of its guidance, while Xpeng’s figures beat its guidance. Li Auto posted the biggest jump, delivering 7,713 vehicles in June, an increase of over 78% versus May. Growth was driven by strong sales of the upgraded version of the Li-One SUV. Li Auto also beat the upper end of its Q2 guidance of 15,500 vehicles, delivering a total of 17,575 vehicles over the quarter.
Now, although growth has certainly picked up, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio and Xpeng trade at 15x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 10x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on…
Read More:What’s New With Xpeng Stock? — Trefis