Tesla Model 3, Model Y, Model S, & Model X Sales Estimates — 1st Half Of 2021

I reported yesterday on Tesla’s record quarterly production and deliveries (aka sales). It’s another stunning feat. Tesla’s the first company in the world to sell more than 200,000 electric vehicles in a quarter.

But one unfortunate thing about Tesla’s official stats is that it groups the Model 3 and Model Y and also groups the Model S and Model X. So, we can’t very easily track sales and identify trends on a model-specific basis.

That said, “Troy Teslike” does this as obsessively as anyone I know, and I’m going to use his numbers just slightly modified to match the official totals in order to create some charts that break out Tesla’s official figures for the 3 + Y more finely. (Troy also doesn’t break out the S and X at this point.) As a quick note of reference, at the beginning of the 2nd quarter, Troy predicted 195,000 Q2 deliveries for Tesla and I predicted 210,000. With the total coming to 201,250 (206,421 produced), Troy’s estimate was slightly closer than mine (3,500 units closer, to be exact). Our forecasts might diverge a bit more this quarter, but I’ll get to that later in another article.

The general story is clear — Tesla Model 3 and Model Y sales are through the roof while Model S and Model X sales dropped to nearly zero as the company has launched revamped versions of the vehicles and struggled to get mass production rolling. That said, the 3 and the Y are clearly the mass-market products. Combined, they are approaching a production rate of a million vehicles a year, which is quite stunning.

We assume that the Model Y is getting closer to the Model 3 in terms of production and deliveries, and that a crossover is coming in time — maybe later this year. However, as noted above, there is not much official insight from Tesla on the exact split. Perhaps we’ll get some clues in Tesla’s next shareholder letter.

In the meantime, what do you think is in store for these four models?

Below, you can also see interactive versions of the charts above, but note that they may not display well on a mobile device.

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