Routes to 1000 Mile (1600km) Battery Electric Cars 2021-2041: IDTechEx


1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1.1. Purpose of this report 1.2. The race is on. Why? 1.3. Primary conclusions: general 1.4. Primary conclusions: long-range technology options 1.5. Routes to more energy/ longer range by harvesting external energy 1.6. Routes to more energy/ longer range by zero-emission range extenders 1.7. Routes to more energy/ longer range by new components 1.8. Routes to more energy/ longer range by vehicle design and materials 1.9. Market forecasts and technology timelines for long range BEVs 2021-2041 1.9.1. New range-extending technology options widely adopted 2021-2041 1.9.2. When several manufacturers mass produce EPA/WLTP long range BEV cars 2021-2041 1.9.3. Commercialisation timeline for edit-able electronics 2020-2041 1.9.4. Application roadmap of perovskite photovoltaics 1.10. Market forecast for long range premium BEV cars including Tesla 1.10.1. Number of long range units sold globally by year as % of all cars 500 mile and 1000 mile range 2021-2041 1.10.2. Global photovoltaic technology share $bn 2041 for all markets including cars 2. INTRODUCTION 2.1. Perpetual cars 2.2. Coping with the red-hot city donut 2.3. Major geopolitical implications 2.4. Global differences 2.5. No – not fuel cells 2.6. Trend to larger more power-hungry cars 2.7. Progress now 2.8. Complexity reduced 2.9. Increased range means limit the increase in parts 2.10. Iterative improvement 2.11. Solar is very powerful 2.12. Solar car patents 2.13. New battery materials increase range 3. TESLA HOLISTIC APPROACH 3.1. Overview 3.2. Tesla holistic approach 3.3. Tesla structural battery and next chemistries and processes 3.4. Tailored battery chemistries 3.5. Tesla Model 3 and Y greatly simplified by large diecasting 3.6. Tesla autonomy simplification – no radar or lidar 3.7. Tesla motor designs – performance with range 4. SIMPLIFICATION, EFFICIENCY, LIGHTWEIGHTING TO INCREASE RANGE 4.1. Overview 4.2. Improving and integrating motors to increase range 4.2.1. eAxles integrate many components 4.2.2. Controls integrated with motors 4.2.3. In-wheel motor systems replace many parts 4.2.4. Less motor cooling increases range 4.2.5. Voltage increase improves range 4.3. Thermal management can increase range 4.4. Merging aircon compressor and motor 4.5. Power cable weight reduction: Aluminium graphene, high voltage, intentions, issues 4.6. Metamaterials and metal patterning for simplification and lightweighting 4.7. Multifunctional composites 4.8. Structural electronics 4.9. Routes to self-healing composite parts 4.10. 3D electronics, electrics, optics, magnetics 4.10.1. 3D printing, In-Mold Structural Electronics™ 4.10.2. Edit-able electronic and electric smart materials 4.11. Transparent electronics and electrics 4.11.1. Overview 4.11.2. How transparent and translucent materials in cars increase range and more 4.11.3. RadarGlass™ 4.11.4. SmartMesh™ transparent heater wrap increasing range 6% 4.11.5. Conclusions 4.12. Structural batteries and supercapacitors 5. SOLAR CARS WITH INCREASED RANGE 5.1. Basics 5.1.1. Definitions and history 5.1.2. Amount of range increase by solar car bodywork 5.1.3. Benchmarking 5.2. Tesla solar Cybertruck and alternatives 5.3. Mainstream solar cars and car-like vehicles 5.3.1. Aptera solar car 5.3.2. Economia Pakistan 5.3.3. Fisker USA 5.3.4. Fraunhofer ISE Germany 5.3.5. Hyundai-Kia Korea 5.3.6. Karma USA no longer 5.3.7. Lightyear Netherlands 5.3.8. Manipal IT India 5.3.9. Sono Motors Germany 5.3.10. Toyota Japan 5.3.11. Stella Lux, Stella Era, Stella Vie Netherlands 5.4. Conclusions 6. PHOTOVOLTAIC VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES 6.1. New geometry can greatly increase range 6.2. Choice of chemistry 6.3. Cell geometries of transparent photovoltaics 6.4. Efficiency and affordability 6.5. What is fitted on satellites appears on cars later 6.6. Single junction PV options beyond silicon 6.7. scSi PV on vehicles 6.8. CIGS PV on vehicles 6.9. Solar racers show the future – triple junction lll-V, solar on sides 6.10. GaAs PV on vehicles 6.11. Leading solar car specifications: Sono, Lightyear and research by Toyota 6.12. Potential for multi-junction solar on cars 6.13. Photovoltaics progresses to become paint 6.14. Materials problems and opportunities being pursued 6.14.1. Overview 6.14.2. CIGS 6.14.3. Perovskite photovoltaics overlayers and transparent film 6.14.4. lll-V materials 6.14.5. Metamaterial boosts photovoltaic cooling and capture increasing range 6.14.6. Examples of EIEV technologies in cars 7. BATTERIES AND SUPERCAPACITORS IMPROVING RANGE 7.1. New geometry can greatly increase range 7.2. Battery cell improvement roadmap 7.3. Potential disruptors to Li-ion 7.4. Academic figures on energy density improvement 7.5. Increasing BEV battery cell energy density 7.6. Increasing EV battery cell specific energy 7.7. Extrapolating improvements to energy density and specific energy 7.8. Improvements to cell energy density and specific energy 7.9. Prototype and targeted improvements to cell energy density and specific energy 7.10. Commentary on improving cell energy densities 7.11. Example: Harvard University claim breakthrough in 2021 7.12. IDTechEx calculations 7.13. IDTechEx energy density calculations – by cathode 7.14. Energy density improvements from silicon 7.15. Next generation cathodes 7.16. Cell design to increase energy densities 7.17. How high can you go with ‘conventional’ electrodes? 7.18. How high can you go with next gen materials? 7.19. Discussion of outlook for Li-ion energy density improvement 7.20. Timeline and outlook for Li-ion energy densities 7.21. Many claimed advances – Samsung and KIST examples 7.22. Concluding remarks 8. IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE AND THERMAL MANAGEMENT ON RANGE 8.1. Range Calculations 8.2. Impact of Ambient Temperature and Climate Control 8.3. Impact of Ambient Temperature and Climate Control 8.4. Model Comparison with Ambient Temperature 8.5. Model Comparison with Climate Control 8.6. Summary 8.7. Holistic Vehicle Thermal Management 8.8. Technology Timeline 8.9. PTC vs Heat Pump 8.10. Recent EVs with Heat Pumps 8.11. Heat Pumps for BEVs Forecast 8.12. Further Innovations 8.13. Advantages of Sophisticated Thermal Management 8.14. Thermal Management Advanced Control: Key Players and Technologies 9. 20 COMPANY PROFILES WITH SWOT ANALYSIS 9.1. Applied Electric Vehicles Australia 9.2. Dezhou China 9.3. Evovelo Spain 9.4. Estrema Italy 9.5. I-FEVS Italy 9.6. Jiangte Joylong Automobile China 9.7. Lightyear Netherlands 9.8. LimCar ElettraCity-2 Italy 9.9. Mahle Germany 9.10. Midsummer Sweden 9.11. Nidec Japan 9.12. Nio China 9.13. Schaeffler Germany 9.14. Sono Motors Germany 9.15. Squad Mobility Netherlands 9.16. Sunnyclist Greece 9.17. Swift Solar USA 9.18. Teijin Japan 9.19. Visedo Finland 9.20. Zoop Turkey



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