Morgan Stanley Expects Ford To Overtake GM In US EV Sales This Year



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Ford looks set to sell more electric vehicles in the US this year than General Motors, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.

In a note to investors released to the media on November 30, Jones points out that the Ford Mustang Mach-E will likely outsell the Chevrolet Bolt EV and Bolt EUV in the final two months of 2021.

In the first ten months of the year, Ford sold 21,703 Mustang Mach-Es, while Chevrolet sold 24,810 units of the Bolt EV and EUV combined. However, GM’s Orion Assembly plant that builds both Bolt EVs has beed idled for the rest of the year, while Ford’s Cuautitlan factory in Mexico remains active. 

“If we assume no more sales of the Chevy Bolt for the remaining 2 months of the year and if we assume the Mustang Mach-E repeats October’s selling rate of 2,848 units for the remaining 2 months of the year, this would put Ford’s total FY21 EV sales at 27,399 units vs. GM at 24,810.”

Morgan Stanley note to investors

The analyst’s calculations are obviously based on Ford continuing Mustang Mach-E deliveries. However, they do not include any GMC Hummer EV pickups that GM pledged to start delivering to customers by the end of the year. In all likelihood, though, GM won’t deliver too many examples of its $112K electric super truck.

According to Morgan Stanley’s forecast, Ford’s battery-electric vehicle sales will reach 150,000 units in fiscal year 2022 or 3.5% of its volume. By fiscal year 2025, they should reach 473,000 units (11.5%), growing to 1.225 million vehicles by fiscal year 2030 (33.7%).

“We forecast Ford’s global passenger vehicle BEV volume to surpass GM’s in FY22, while trailing GM modestly longer term.”

Morgan Stanley note to investors

In the long run, though, GM appears to be positioned better than Ford when it comes to EV sales. Morgan Stanley forecasts GM’s EV unit sales will reach 114,000 units in FY22 (excluding China mini vehicle) or 1.7% of GM total volume, 600,000 units in FY25 (9.9%), and 1.845 million units by FY30 (34.8%).

Both companies are trailing Tesla in the US, with the latter holding a solid lead in the electric vehicle race. Tesla sold an estimated 264,360 EVs in the US through October of this year, according to industry sales figures.



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